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Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics

Global surveys or hard data – which are the fake news?

In this month’s regular update on global economic activity, the Fulcrum nowcasts have once again identified extremely strong growth rates, especially in the advanced economies. These results continue to suggest that the global economy is expanding at the fastest rate seen since 2010, with the implication that the expansion may be reaching escape velocity, where it is no longer in need of emergency support from the central banks or fiscal authorities...

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The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 28

Photo Credit: sevoo===============================In my view, these were my best posts written between November 2013 and January 2014:Advice For Would-be BloggersBe regular (I need that advice myself), write on what you care about, start small.  Not that much different than this recent interview of me regarding blogging.What Life Insurance to Buy?Depends on whether you need it for protection or as part of a tax shelter or estate plan.Protect Your Older ...

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The Permanent Portfolio

==========================================I will admit, when I first read about the Permanent Portfolio in the late-80s, I was somewhat skeptical, but not totally dismissive.  Here is the classic Permanent Portfolio, equal proportions of:S&P 500 stocksThe longest Treasury BondsSpot GoldMoney market fundsThink about Inflation, how do these assets do?S&P 500 stocks – mediocre to pretty goodThe longest Treasury Bonds – cratersSpot Gold – soarsMoney market funds – keeps value, earns incomeThink about Deflation, how do these assets do?S&...

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Redacted Version of the March 2017 FOMC Statement

Photo Credit: Norman Maddeaux====================================February 2017March 2017CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace.No ...

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On the Pursuit of Economic Growth

Picture Credit: Asian Development Bank========================I wrote this to summarize my thoughts from a chat session that I was able to participate in at Thompson Reuters Global Markets Forum yesterday.  It was wider ranging than this, but was a very enjoyable time.  Thanks to Manoj Rawal for inviting me.On the Pursuit of Economic GrowthI think one of the conceits of the modern era is ...

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The Rules, Part LXIII

Photo Credit: Pete Edgeler==========================Onto the next rule:“We pay disclosed compensation.  We pay undisclosed compensation.  We don’t pay both disclosed compensation and undisclosed compensation.”I didn’t originate this rule, and I am not sure who did.  I learned it at Provident Mutual from the Senior Executives of Pension Division when I worked there in the mid-’90s.  There is a broader rule behind it...

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