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Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics

Distrust Forecasts, Part 2

Photo Credit: D.C.Atty || Scrawled in 2008, AFTER the crash started=============================Comments are always appreciated from readers, if they are polite.  Here’s a recent one from the piece Distrust Forecasts.You made one statement that I don’t really understand. “Most forecasters only think about income statements. Most of the limits stem from balance sheets proving insufficient, or cash flows inverting, and staying that way...

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Redacted Version of the December 2016 FOMC Statement

Photo Credit: stantontcady==================================================================November 2016December 2016CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a...

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Rebound and reflation in the global economy

A year ago, there was a pervasive mood of gloom among economists and investors about prospects for the global economy in 2016. China was in the doldrums, and fears of a sharp renminbi devaluation were rife. The oil shock had caused major reductions in capital spending in the energy sector, and consumers seemed reluctant to spend the large gains they were ...

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2016 Autumn Statement

Got back from a trip to London to give my lecture (pics above: thanks to everyone at SPERI and New Statesman, plus Beth Rigby for chairing and everyone else for coming) looking forward to not thinking about economics for the rest of the day, only to find the Chancellor had given an Autumn Statement. Luckily the whole thing appears to ...

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Cutting the Mail down to size: welcome to Scotland

For non-UK readers who might be mystified by the picture above, some background. The Daily Mail, a UK newspaper that once supported Hitler and seems to be returning to those good old ways, recently calledthe three independent judges, who had just ruled that parliament should have a say on triggering Article 50 to leave to EU, “enemies of the people”. In response to this and their remorseless headlines pushing the idea of a migrant threat, a group called Stop Funding ...

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November 10th is the Marine Corps Birthday…Semper Fi.

Remember, when you are sucking down your cafe latte, complaining that your Gameboy is broken and talking your country down, don't forget who paid the ultimate price for your freedom.GENERAL WILSON'S BIRTHDAY TOAST On the occasion marking the birthday of the US Marine Corps, 1978, onboardCamp LeJeune, and in the presence of several thousand Marines and theirladies, General Louis H. Wilson, CMC, arose to deliver his long awaitedaddress to the troops. He approached ...

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Trump: Misleading the People

Introduction (added 10/11/16)I originally wrote this piece with a start and ending that assumed Trump had lost (yes, I know), and re-wrote it after he had won. I mention that because I think an unfortunate consequence of that is that many will read this as another 'why did he win' piece. It is not that, It is more a 'how did someone who was openly despised by most Republican politicians (included past Presidents), who broke all the normal rules...

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