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Macroeconomics

Marvin Goodfriend would be good for the Fed

Marvin-Goodfriend © Bloomberg It was widely reported at the weekend that the Trump administration is seriously considering the nomination of Marvin Goodfriend, a professor of economics at Carnegie-Mellon University, to one of the vacant positions on the board of governors of the Federal Reserve. As a former Fed official, a much cited academic author on monetary economics, and an impeccable conservative, he could be even a candidate to replace Janet Yellen next year. Although I do ...

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Albert Edwards: "What On Earth Is Going On With US Wages"

When Albert Edwards predicted in late 2016 that a surge in wage inflation was imminent, we were confused by this prediction from the world's preeminent deflationist: after all, not only had not a single economic indicator validated a tighter labor market despite unemployment just above 4%, but as we have have repeatedly demonstrated what little wage inflation existed, was attributable to managerial-level, supervisory positions while the bulk of job creation remained...

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FOMC Minutes Signal Rate-Hike "Soon", Economic Weakness "Transitory"

Having top-ticked US economic data with its March rate-hike, all eyes are on the May minutes to confirm the total lack of data-dependence now present at The Fed. The main focus of the minutes was on the 'normalization' of the balance sheet (since June hike odds are at 100%), which was confirmed with details of the plan revealed. Economic weakness in Q1 was shrugged off as "transitory" and tightening is appropriate...

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How Long Can The Great Global Reflation Continue? (And What Happens When It Ends?)

Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via PeakProsperity.com, Every now and again, it’s good to take stock of the Great Global Reflation that has been marching higher (with a few stumbles and scares) since early 2009, over eight years ago. Is this Great Reflation running out of steam, or is it poised for yet another leg higher? Which is more likely? Keynesianism Vs The Real World Let’s start by reviewing the systemic...

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Why Brexit means more than Brexit

Some people think I go on about Brexit too much. That is easy to explain. The costs of a no deal Brexit almost certainly exceed the cost of UK austerity for the average UK citizen, and I went on about austerity a great deal because its costs exceeded those of anything else in macroeconomics. But for me there is something else about Brexit that I find deeply worrying. It is that...

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Is US productivity (finally) perking up?

The dire performance of labour productivity growth in the global economic recovery – the so-called “productivity puzzle” – is by far the most depressing feature of recent economic performance in the big economies. Growth in total-factor productivity in the advanced economies (i.e. the efficiency of labour and the capital stock combined) has fallen to zero in recent years, compared with a little below...

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President Trump abandons the strong dollar policy

President Trump’s remarks last week about the dollar and US monetary policy offer more evidence that America’s strong dollar policy, launched in 1995 by Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin when the dollar was near post-war lows, is now changing. The President said that a strong dollar “sounds good”, but added that “our dollar is getting too strong…it is very, very hard to compete when you have a ...

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ECB on an even keel — Le Pen permitting

Marine Le Pen © Getty Images The European Central Bank has been one of the two main providers of global monetary easing since 2015, and that seems likely to persist throughout 2017. Despite its continuing importance to the setting of global monetary conditions, the bank’s policy deliberations have made only little waves in the markets since deflation risks abated last year. ...

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Global surveys or hard data – which are the fake news?

In this month’s regular update on global economic activity, the Fulcrum nowcasts have once again identified extremely strong growth rates, especially in the advanced economies. These results continue to suggest that the global economy is expanding at the fastest rate seen since 2010, with the implication that the expansion may be reaching escape velocity, where it is no longer in need of emergency support from the central banks or fiscal authorities...

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The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 28

Photo Credit: sevoo===============================In my view, these were my best posts written between November 2013 and January 2014:Advice For Would-be BloggersBe regular (I need that advice myself), write on what you care about, start small.  Not that much different than this recent interview of me regarding blogging.What Life Insurance to Buy?Depends on whether you need it for protection or as part of a tax shelter or estate plan.Protect Your Older ...

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