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Dollar slips as Trump takes rein, most Asia markets up

The dollar retreated against most of its peers Monday, with warnings of wild volatility ahead as Donald Trump began his presidency promising to put America first and hitting out at global trade deals. While trading floors are ravaged by uncertainty over the tycoon's plans, shares in most Asian markets rose following a positive lead from Wall Street, though Japan's Nikkei tanked as the greenback slipped against the yen. Trump's inauguration speech Friday continued his campaign rhetoric, saying "every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families".

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Forex – Dollar down in Asia nearly 1% against yen on trade concerns – Investing.com

Investing.comForex - Dollar down in Asia nearly 1% against yen on trade concernsInvesting.comInvesting.com - The dollar fell almost 1% against the yen on Monday as fears grow that President Donald Trump's "America First" policy could lead to wide trade war with key Asian economies and that along with plan to renegotiate the North American Free ...FOREX-Dollar drops as investors await details of Trump's policiesYahoo FinanceYen Gains With Gold as Stocks Decline Across Asia: Markets WrapForex Factoryall 27 news articles »

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Philstockworld January Portfolio Review

We're off to a great start! ; Only 20 days into the new year and, since our last review, all 4 of our Member Portfolios have added substantial gains as our bets on a flatlining market are paying off: Our Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) is up $9,352 (9.3%), at $246,577, which is up 148.6% since its 8/8/15 inception – our newest portfolio. Our Butterfly Portfolio is up $7,816 (7.8%) at $331,408, which is up 231.4% since its 7/29/13 inception. ; Our Short-Terrm Portfolio (STP) is up $9,222 (9%) at $484,298 which is up 375.1% since its 11/26/13 inception. Our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) has jumped 29,649 (6%) to $1,209,372, which is up 141.9% since its 11/26/13 inception. ; In addition to our 4 virtual tracking portfolios, we also have our Top Trade Ideas, which do not go into a portfolio but I will do a review of those next week. ;For the first time ever, our last two Top Trade Ideas were hedges – that should tell you something about my mindset for the market going forward. ; All of our Member portfolios are 75-90% CASH!!! at the moment and using 1/4-1/2 margin – leaving us plenty of room to adjust if the market does turn sour – something I feel is very likely to happen in the next two months and yes, I know I've said this before but, really, how much over our 2,100 top call on the S&P are we? ;It's at 2,262, so we're 162 points over what I called a value top and that's 7.7% but, in fairness, the Dollar is down 3% and that explains most of it. The rest of the pop comes from runaway expections from the Trump Presidency and yes, he will lower the Corporate Tax Rate but Corporations only pay 12% on avergage now – how low can they really go? ;More pop came from the Banking Sector, where deregulation expections have added 20% to that index but we saw what deregulated Banks did to themselves under Bush – why is that a good thing? ;And, of course, rising oil prices have boosted the Energy…

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Recent GLB $IRBT resuming up-trend; $ANET GLB fails; Access my TC2000 scans–newly described in my blog’s glossary

I spent some time this weekend entering descriptive information about my WatchLists and scans in the glossary from this blog. Those of you who have TC2000 can join my Club and access several WatchLists and EasyScans that I have published (access my club in your library tab). For example, I have a WatchList called Alltimehighs. You can now access this WatchList to monitor or run some of the scans I have developed that search this list for promising stocks. My Darvas scan, described in the glossary , identified 53 stocks this weekend. One of these, IRBT looks interesting to me. It had a GLB to an all time high in late October, then rose to around $60. It then entered a 5 week consolidation. IRBT showed signs of renewed strength last week. IRBT reports earnings on 2/8. I have a small position. IRBT has a maximum RWBCount of 12 (of 12). All of the weekly moving averages line up properly. In early January, I tweeted intraday that a recent GLB stock, ANET, looked like it was moving up on above average volume.  Seven days afterwards ANET gapped down on huge volume on some bad legal news. I saw no technical indicator that warned me in advance about this significant decline except for the fact that the stock traded back below its 30 day average (red line) a few days later, but it bounced. Also, the fact that the rise I wrote about only lasted for another day and the Bollinger Band expansion failed to continue were other signs of possible weakness. Technical signals can give me an edge, but they are not perfect. That is why I take small initial positions and only add to them if they prove themselves. If I owned ANET I would not sell now unless it fails to hold the recent support it had below its lower Bollinger Band, around  87.50. The GMI remains at 5 (of 6) and on a Green signal. The QQQ short term up-trend has now lasted 29 days (U-29). gmi: 5 gmi-2: 7 t2108: 59 Tags: Darvas, GMI

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Call Me When You Have A Real Insurance Company!

Photo Credit: eflon || The title of the article comes from a comment Greenberg supposedly made to Buffett when AIG was much bigger than Berkshire Hathaway — times change…============================The title of the article comes from a comment Greenberg supposedly made to Buffett when AIG was much bigger than Berkshire Hathaway [BRK] — times change…It’s come to this: AIG has sought out reinsurance from BRK to cap the amount of losses they will pay for prior business written.  It’s quite a statement when you are willing to pay $10 billion in order to have BRK pay 80% of claims over $25 billion, up to $20 billion in total.  At $50 Billion in claims AIG is on its own again.So what business was covered?  A lot.  This is the one of the biggest deals of its type, ever:The agreement covers 80% of substantially all of AIG’s U.S. Commercial long-tail exposures for accident years 2015 and prior, which includes the largest part of AIG’s U.S. casualty exposures during that period. AIG will retain sole authority to handle and resolve claims, and NICO has various access, association and consultation rights.Or as was said in the Wall Street Journal article:The pact covers such product lines as workers’ compensation, directors’ and officers’ liability, professional indemnity, medical malpractice, commercial automobile and some other liability policies.Now, AIG is not among the better P&C insurance companies for reserving out there.  2.5 years ago, they made the Aleph Blog Hall of Shame for P&C reserving.  Now if you would have looked on the last 10-K on page 296 for item 8, note 12, you would note that AIG’s reserving remained weak for 2014 and 2015 as losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred for the business of prior years continued positive.For AIG, this puts a lot of its troubles behind it, after the upcoming writeoff (from the WSJ article):AIG, one of the biggest sellers of insurance by volume to businesses around the globe, also said it expects a material fourth-quarter charge to boost its claims reserves. AIG declined to comment on the possible size. Its fourth-quarter earnings will be released next month.For BRK, this is an opportunity to make money investing the $10 billion as claims on the long-tail business get paid out slowly.  It’s called float, which isn’t magic, but Buffett has done better than most at investing the float, and choosing insurance business to write and reinsure that doesn’t result in large losses for BRK.I expect BRK to make an underwriting profit on this, but let’s assume the worst, that BRK pays out the full $20 billion.  Say the claims come at a rate of $5 billion/year.  The average payout period would be 7.5 years, and BRK would have to earn 9.2% on the float to break even.  At $3.75B/yr, the figures would be 10 years and 6.9%.  At $2.5B/yr, 15 years and 4.6%.This doesn’t seem so bad to me — now I don’t know how bad reserve development will be for AIG, but BRK is usually pretty careful about underwriting this sort of thing. That said BRK has a lot of excess cash sitting around already, and desirable targets for large investments are few.  This had better make an underwriting profit, or a small loss, or maybe Buffett is ready for the market to fall apart, and thus the rate he can earn goes up.All that said, it is an interesting chapter in the relationship between the two companies.  If BRK wasn’t the dominant insurance company of the US after the 2008 financial crisis, it definitely is now.Full disclosure: long BRK/B for myself and clients

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Wall Street Week Ahead: Optimism among S&P 500 CEOs as Trump takes power

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is only hours old, but already a small parade of S&P 500 companies' chiefs have voiced optimism that his promised tax cuts, stimulus spending and deregulation will boost corporate profits. In the days ahead of Friday's inauguration, senior executives from Morgan Stanley , Delta Air Lines and other major U.S. corporations said the Trump White House has already sparked a brighter outlook for business. "There is certainly more reason to be optimistic as we enter 2017 than there was at the beginning of 2016," Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman said on Tuesday after his bank said profit doubled in the fourth quarter.

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