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Tag Archives: financial news

Hotels: Concerns about Fewer Foreign Visitors in 2017

From HotelNewsNow.com: US hoteliers keep eye on dip in bookings from EuropeU.S. hoteliers have reported seeing a decline in bookings from European travelers heading into 2017 and are looking to explain what has caused the drop.Possible factors include economic uncertainty in the continent, coupled with a new U.S. president who is unpopular in several European countries. But it’s hard to say what combination of things, if any, is keeping Europeans away.PM Hotel Group began watching reservations originating from other countries shortly after the presidential election, President Joe Bojanowski said. Company officials had serious concerns about foreign inbound travel in the New York City and San Francisco areas, he said, and the company has seen a decline in reservations in those markets.From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 14 JanuaryThe U.S. hotel industry reported mixed results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 8-14 January 2017, according to data from STR.In year-over-year comparisons, the industry’s occupancy decreased 0.9% to 56.6%. However, average daily rate (ADR) rose 2.8% to US$122.29, and revenue per available room (RevPAR) increased 1.9% to US$69.24.emphasis addedThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2017, dashed orange is 2015, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.2015 was the best year on record for hotels.So far 2017 is close to 2015, and well ahead of the median rate. For hotels, this is the slow season of the year, and occupancy will pick up into the Spring.Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

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Schedule for Week of Jan 22nd

The key economic report this week is the advance report of Q4 GDP on Friday.Other key reports are December New and Existing Home sales.----- Monday, Jan 23rd -----No economic releases scheduled.----- Tuesday, Jan 24th-----10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.54 million SAAR, down from 5.61 million in November.Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.55 million SAAR in December.10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January.10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for December 2016----- Wednesday, Jan 25th -----7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November 2016. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.----- Thursday, Jan 26th -----8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 247 thousand initial claims, up from 234 thousand the previous week.8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data.10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the October sales rate.The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 590 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in December from 592 thousand in November.11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January. ----- Friday, Jan 27th -----8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2016 (advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.2% annualized in Q4, down from 3.5% in Q3.8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.0% increase in durable goods orders.10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 98.2, up from the preliminary reading 98.1.

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Bristol Myers Squibb BMY Teaches us the Value Spotting Extended Negative Divergences

If you’ve ever wondered why we chart momentum and volume along with price, BMY tells us why. Today shares literally collapsed back to the lows, down from the prior swing highs. Wouldn’t it have been nice to know this was a distinct possibility? Divergences warned us many days in advance. Let’s study this example from this  reversal and learn to spot it in the future – and be ready. We’re seeing Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) reverse UP away from the $50.00 level in October to peak at $60.00 as we began 2017. Look closely at the swing highs in November, December, and January. If you understand divergences, you’ll know that something is very wrong that price isn’t showing. With price at new swing highs, comfortably above the 20 day EMA, things are severely deteriorating beneath the (price) surface. Namely volume has been weakening since November along with momentum (both are trending lower). The chart above shows us the collapse back to $50.00 but let’s zoom-in on the divergences for clarity: This time we’re just seeing the rally from November to January 19th BEFORE the collapse back to $50.00. For perspective, pretend you’re seeing this chart as it was on January 19th, not knowing the next day will result in a collapse under the $52.00 level. Your “message from the future” came from lengthy negative divergences in VOLUME and MOMENTUM. As price pushed up to THREE new swing highs (November, then December and finally January), you can see that volume and momentum were weaker (lower) than their respective November peaks. It’s a sign that the steam is running out and a reversal is becoming MORE likely as the situation continues. Finally, like a rubber band stretched to its peak, price “snaps back” violently, working off the divergence. The result here is a collapse (on high bearish/sell volume) from $60.50 to $57.00 in a single session. Price continued to fall from $57.00 to the $55.50 level… and then today under $49.00 per share. Study the message from volume and momentum alongside price – they reveal hidden secrets price won’t tell you. Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning. Corey Rosenbloom, CMT Afraid to Trade.com Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

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Pondering a Perfect Pattern Repeat for Market at the Highs

A major part of technical analysis (charting) is identifying prior patterns – and their outcomes – and comparing them to what’s happening right now in the market. It’s not to say that history will repeat 100%, but if it does, you have an advantage over other traders who don’t see the pattern (and who are likely to make the same mistakes they made last time). We’re seeing a direct Pattern Repeat situation in the S&P 500 and it’s time to study it for a proper plan of attack (what we expect to happen next). Here it is in full pattern glory: I’ve been highlighting this pattern with members and wanted to share it with you as well. We’re focusing on the July to August pattern where price rallied sharply higher and then developed TWO small trading ranges just above the rising 20 day EMA (green). We even observed a similar negative momentum divergence in the oscillator (red arrow). Ok – that’s great.  We’re mainly concerned with the immediate future and if the outcome from August will be similar – repeat – into January/February. Let’s take a quick moment and zoom-in on the pure price action with respect to the moving averages: The left image is the candles (price bars) from July into August and the right image is the current rally. Does it look familiar?  It should – and does.  That’s undeniable. What we’re concerned with is the price action in August AFTER the two highlighted regions. Price stagnated a bit more (continued to trade sideways) and then plunged lower in September, kicking off a bearish swing that ended in November. No, the immediate future won’t exactly match the past but there will be echoes and clues savvy traders can use in their game plans into February. Continue studying the July/August pattern and the September/November outcome and plan today. Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning. Corey Rosenbloom, CMT Afraid to Trade.com Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”

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This is a Very Tight Range for Traders Emini Jan 20

Stop what you’re doing and look at the trading range.  Take off all indicators and focus on price. We’re still trading within a clear range – no breakout yet – and today’s action fits perfectly in that context. Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades: We continue to see price – as planned – move within the 20 point trading range. We’re back at the midpoint of an expected sell-swing “down away from” 2,270 as we trade through 2,250. A future breakout is on the horizon but it’s not here yet. Play the range until we do get this future breakout. We had a strong gap UP from 2,260’s Midpoint to 2,270’s trendline and then right back down to 2,250. Love it or hate it – you should be indifferent – this is the hand the market is dealing all of us at the moment. If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member! Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning. Corey Rosenbloom, CMT Afraid to Trade.com Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”

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Brexit & Beyond: Hammond Urges Swift Brexit Talks, Europe’s Hopes and Concerns on Trump, ECB Head Under Scrutiny

Brexit & Beyond: Europe in Flux is The Wall Street Journal’s round-up of news and analysis of how Brexit will affect global business, economies and finance. You can sign up here. MUST READS Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond speaks in Davos, Switzerland. PHOTO: European Pressphoto Agency ‘Political Necessity’ to Wrap Up Brexit Talk Within Two Years, U.K. Treasury Chief Says: Britain is aiming to wrap up exit talks with the European Union within two years as a “political necessity,” U.K. Treasury chief, Philip Hammond, said Friday, rebutting concerns from some European governments that negotiations can’t be concluded so quickly. Even After May’s Speech, Brexit Details Are Foggy: For six months, European Union leaders have pressed British Prime Minister Theresa May for some clarity about Britain’s vision of Brexit. On Tuesday, they got some. Yet Mrs. May’s speech was less a post-Brexit plan than an explanation of the options she has ruled out. Europe Expresses Concern, Hope on Trump’s Approach to Trade: European governments prepared for Donald Trump’s inauguration Friday, apprehensive about a break in U.S. foreign policy tradition but hopeful that common interests and economic reality would prevent a sharp departure from the status quo. EU Ombudsman Opens Inquiry on Draghi’s Membership in Group of Thirty: Ties between European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and an international group of financiers drew fresh scrutiny Friday, after the European Union’s top ethics official launched an inquiry into his membership of the group. U.K. Retail Sales Drop at Fastest Rate Since 2012: U.K. retail sales fell at the fastest monthly rate in nearly five years in December, data showed Friday, in a first sign that accelerating inflation could be curbing Britons’ willingness to part with their cash in the wake of the Brexit vote. Banks Face Brexit Squeeze as Consumers Max Out on Debt: U.K. consumers are untroubled by potential disruption from any Brexit-induced economic slowdown or inflation pressures. That looks like storing up trouble for lenders. U.K.’s Theresa May Meets With Wall Street Bank Chiefs: U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May met Thursday with the chief executives of several Wall Street banks, following further warnings by lenders that they would shift jobs out of London to continental Europe after Brexit. ECB Survey Shows Rising Eurozone Inflation Expectations: Inflation in the eurozone will be somewhat higher than previously expected both this year and next because of higher oil prices, forecasters polled by the European Central Bank said in a report released Friday. Awash in Migrants, Italy Steps Up Deportations for Relief: As Italy looks for fresh ways to cope with the hundreds of thousands of migrants bottled up in the country, one solution is rising to the top of the agenda: deportation. For Former Soviet Republics, Moscow Has a New Playbook: Russia is offering tiny Moldova a fresh bargain in exchange for cutting trade ties with the European Union, signaling a new playbook as the Kremlin attempts to win over countries tempted to forge deeper ties with the West. IN THE PAPERS Britain Weighs Costs of Trump Embrace – Politico Theresa May Told Us What She Wants from Brexit. But What Is She Willing to Give? – Time Philip Hammond Blames Tony Blair for Brexit Vote – The Guardian Labour MPs Could Vote Against Leadership on Brexit – BBC U.K.-U.S. Trade Deal ‘Within 90 Days’ of Brexit’, Nigel Farage Says – Sky News - Compiled with the help of Toby Luckhurst For breaking news and intelligence on Brexit, finance, markets, deals and people from London, download WSJ City for iPhone or Android smartphone. And you can find more analysis of politics, economics and regulation in the European Union over on Real Time Brussels. 

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Brexit & Beyond: May’s Davos Speech Opposite of Trump Line, Many Paths to Bad Brexit​

Brexit & Beyond: Europe in Flux is The Wall Street Journal’s round-up of news and analysis of how Brexit will affect global business, economies and finance. You can sign up here. MUST READS British Prime Minister Theresa May sought to convince leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the U.K. remained committed to free trade. PHOTO: Bloomberg News U.K. Will Be Global Leader of Free Trade, Theresa May Says: British Prime Minister Theresa May said the U.K. would step up as a leading supporter for free trade in a speech providing a strong defense of globalization and an implicit rebuke of policies suggested by President-elect Donald Trump​. London Mayor Speaks of Brexit Risk for City: At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London, says business leaving London could well leave Europe. The Multiple Paths to a Bad Brexit Deal: Ignore the warm words about wanting the European Union to succeed; the key passage in Theresa May’s speech on Brexit on Tuesday was her declaration that “no deal is better than a bad deal,” writes Simon Nixon. Draghi Strikes Dovish Tone as ECB Keeps Rates, Stimulus On Hold: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Thursday said policy makers aren’t convinced a recent pickup in inflation will be sustained, and asked German savers to be patient as they clamor for higher interest rates. European Leaders Cautious About Region’s Economic Recovery: In a clear break with upbeat sentiment among U.S. executives, European corporate leaders and policy makers gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos expressed concern that an antiestablishment wave amid a string of important national elections could endanger the region’s modest upswing. Eurozone House Prices Rise at Fastest Rate Since 2008: Eurozone house prices rose at the fastest pace since before the global financial crisis in the third quarter of 2016, a development that should make homeowners feel richer and support the currency area’s modest recovery. German Companies on a Tear in U.S.: German companies are accelerating their expansion in the U.S., undaunted by President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to limit international trade and uncertainty surrounding his future stance on foreign takeovers. Ukraine Tries Do-It-Yourself Military Upgrade While Awaiting Trump: Ukraine is ramping up its defense industry at a Soviet-era tank factory here near Europe’s deadly front line with Russia, as officials wonder what the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump will mean for their country. IN THE PAPERS Theresa May Does Davos – Politico The Fights That Will Shape Brexit Outcome – Financial Times Goldman Sachs ‘Considers Moving Half its London Workforce’ – The Independent Brexit Will Damage U.K. and EU, Says Pierre Moscovici – BBC Brexit is Only The Beginning – Washington Post - Compiled with the help of Toby Luckhurst For breaking news and intelligence on Brexit, finance, markets, deals and people from London, download WSJ City for iPhone or Android smartphone. And you can find more analysis of politics, economics and regulation in the European Union over on Real Time Brussels. 

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Comments on December Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.226 Million Annual Rate in DecemberThe housing starts report this morning was above consensus because of the sharp increase in multi-family starts. Multi-family is frequently volatile month-to-month, and has seen especially wild swings over the last four months.Meanwhile single family starts were decent. Just remember that multi-family can be very volatile ...This first graph shows the month to month comparison between 2015 (blue) and 2016 (red).Click on graph for larger image.Starts were up 4.9% in 2016 compared to 2015. My guess was starts would increase 4% to 8% in 2016.Multi-family starts are down 3.1% in 2016, and single-family starts are up 9.3% year-over-year.Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily over the last few years - but has started to decline. Completions (red line) have lagged behind - but completions have been generally catching up (more deliveries, although this has dipped lately). Completions lag starts by about 12 months.I think most of the growth in multi-family starts is probably behind us - in fact multi-family starts probably peaked in June 2015 (at 510 thousand SAAR) - although I expect solid multi-family starts for a few more years (based on demographics).The second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.Note the exceptionally low level of single family starts and completions. The "wide bottom" was what I was forecasting several years ago, and now I expect several years of increasing single family starts and completions.

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No Breakout Not Today Emini Trading Update Jan 19

My heart goes out to you if you excitedly decided 2017 was the year you would begin trading the @ES for the first time. I can’t imagine a worse environment to begin your trading journey into the index futures market than this. Yet here we are, January almost over and we have a flat, low volatility, frustrating trading range at the highs. On the other hand, if you enjoy trading the back-and-forth action between range support and resistance, 2017 has been a great year for you so far! Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades: We continue to see price – as planned – move within the 20 point trading range and our Fibonacci Levels. We’re in the midpoint of an expected sell-swing “down away from” 2,270 potentially toward 2,260 then 2,250. A future breakout is on the horizon but it’s not here yet. Play the range until we do get this future breakout. If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member! Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning. Corey Rosenbloom, CMT Afraid to Trade.com Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”

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