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Tag Archives: forex analysis books

USDJPY Slides in APAC Trade

But the dollar — which soared in November and December on expectation his big-spending, tax-cutting, deregulation plans would fan inflation — continued to struggle in January. In early trade Monday it bought 113.60 yen, well down from 114.60 yen Friday and more than four percent down from the highs touched late in December. It was also well down against the euro and pound despite ongoing concerns about Britain’s exit from the European Union. “I suspect we’re entering extremely volatile times for the dollar,” Stephen Innes, senior trader at OANDA, said in a note. “There remains a high level of uncertainty about the new administration’s dollar policies, especially following President Trump’s recent remarks on the strong dollar directed at China.” Trump last week said the greenback was too strong against China’s yuan, which he claimed was “killing” the US economy. The stronger yen dragged exporters on Tokyo’s Nikkei, which ended the morning 1.1 percent lower. AFP

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No Major Change

Trump's inauguration looks to have kept traders distracted as markets experienced a relatively quiet Friday, despite some higher volume trading.The S&P experienced higher volume accumulation but was unable to get past 2,275. Monday is another day, but keep an eye on the MACD; a gain with a new 'buy' trigger well above the bullish zero line will attract technical traders on the long side. This in turn will encourage short covering.The Nasdaq turned a MACD trigger 'sell', but given its relative position well above the bullish zero line it would count as a weak 'sell' trigger. Other Technicals remain firmly positive, and the relative performance of the index against the S&P suggests it's well positioned to go higher.Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 is still struggling. It did make up some lost ground, but not enough to recover lost support and not enough to reverse technical weakness. Shorts will again be looking to attack unless there is a push above 1,376.Longer term charts had moved back in favour of bulls (in what was a slow-mo reversal). It would take a few months of consistent downside to return this to a bearish stance; in light of this, look for a move to broadening wedge resistance - i.e. further bullish action.Dow Theorists can continue to take comfort in the relative relationship between Transports and Dow Jones as the breakout from the two-and-a-half year decline resumes its upward advance (Transports leading).For tomorrow, watch for a breakout in the S&P and a continuation (with new highs) of a breakout in the Nasdaq. A weak start could see an acceleration down in the Russell 2000.You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog. I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for "fallond". If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro's system. (function(document,script,id){var js,r=document.getElementsByTagName(script)[0],protocol=/^http:/.test(document.location)?'http':'https';if(!document.getElementById(id)){js=document.createElement(script);js.id=id;js.src=protocol+'://widgets.changetip.com/public/js/widgets.js';r.parentNode.insertBefore(js,r)}}(document,'script','changetip_w_0'));--- Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free. Fallond Stock Picks

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Trump Readies Executive Actions

Donald Trump is preparing to sign executive actions on his first day in the White House on Friday to take the opening steps to crack down on immigration, build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border and roll back outgoing President Barack Obama’s policies. Trump, a Republican elected on Nov. 8 to succeed Democrat Obama, arrived in Washington on a military plane with his family a day before he will be sworn in during a ceremony at the U.S. Capitol. Aides said Trump would not wait to wield one of the most powerful tools of his office, the presidential pen, to sign several executive actions that can be implemented without the input of Congress. Reuters We begin a new chapter for the US Dollar Fed Shouldn’t Let Economy Run Too Hot

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Aussie Dollar Resilience

3:12pm The Australian dollar jumped to a two-month high after data showed China’s economy expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter of 2016. China is Australia’s No.1 trading partner while the Aussie is often seen as a liquid proxy for the yuan. The dollar is currently trading at US75.82¢, just below today’s peak of US75.89¢, a level not seen since November 11. The Aussie is up about 1 per cent this week and is on track to clock its fourth straight weekly gain. It is up 5.3 per cent in January so far, making it one of the best performing major currencies in the world. “I have been fielding more questions about the Aussie’s resilience over the past 24 hours than any other currency,” said Stephen Innes, senior currency trader at OANDA Australia and Asia Pacific. “Australia (is) an oasis in this politically contentious global environment. In addition to the political stability, yields remain attractive.” The Aussie extended its winning streak elsewhere. It touched a 1-1/2-year peak against the euro after the head of the European Central Bank pointed to subdued inflation and the need for further monetary policy stimulus. It also rose on the yen to be near a one-month high. Investors are now awaiting the inauguration of Donald Trump later on Friday for further cues. Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States. “Donald Trump will take centre stage as we begin a new chapter in American politics and global financial markets. Buckle up as we are likely in for a wild ride these next 100 days,” Innes said. The Sydney Morning Herald

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Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it's suggesting the S&P will follow suit. Technicals are holding up well.The Nasdaq had small losses, but volume did climb to register as distribution. However, the breakout is holding, and it has room to run to support.For tomorrow, look for an acceleration lower in the Russell 2000. The S&P may attract late-player Shorts looking to see if this index follows the lead in the Russell 2000.You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog. I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for "fallond". If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro's system. (function(document,script,id){var js,r=document.getElementsByTagName(script)[0],protocol=/^http:/.test(document.location)?'http':'https';if(!document.getElementById(id)){js=document.createElement(script);js.id=id;js.src=protocol+'://widgets.changetip.com/public/js/widgets.js';r.parentNode.insertBefore(js,r)}}(document,'script','changetip_w_0'));--- Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free. Fallond Stock Picks

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Dollar Mixed Ahead of Trump Inauguration

Donald Trump to kick off his first 100 days strong Donald J. Trump will become the 45th President of the United States when he is sworn into office tomorrow. Markets will be following the event as his transition team has promised to deliver executive actions from day one. Here is a quick schedule of the Inauguration: 9:30 am EST- Inauguration ceremony begins 11:30 am EST- Opening remarks. Noon – Trump will recite the oath of office. Afterward, Trump will deliver his inaugural address. 12:30 EST – Ceremony ends. 3 pm to 5 pm EST – Inaugural parade. 7 pm to 11pm EST – Three official inaugural balls. The U.S. dollar was mixed during the Thursday trading session ahead of the big event. The NAFTA currencies, CAD and MXN had a volatile session following comments from earlier in the week about the renegotiation of the trade agreement. The Mexican peso had been a focus of Trump, but the CAD was quickly caught in a downtrend losing about 0.40 percent on Thursday. Trump has not changed much since his combative persona during the primaries and the election which he eventually won. His first 100 days in office are full of uncertainties for all asset classes which portents higher volatility as more of his policies are finally revealed. The EUR/USD gained 0.266 percent in the last 24 hours. The single currency is trading at 1.0665 after the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates and quantitative easing amounts as expected. ECB President Mario Draghi asked markets to be patient as the euro zone is on a path of recovery even without speed on the needed structural reforms. Inflation is higher, but that is linked to rising energy prices which is the work of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the production cut agreement. The USD/MXN lost 0.219 precent during the trading session. The currency pair is trading at 21.9421 after once again breaking through the 22 price level. Comments from President-elect Trump on imposing a border tax and his hounding of automakers with a presence in Mexico has further weakened the peso. The reality is that if Trump delivers on his growth objectives for the U.S. economy it would greatly benefit Mexico as a major commercial partner. Even with a weak currency Mexico could use that to its advantage and erode the negative effects of a tariff. The unknown nature of the extent of Trump’s policies is what is putting downward pressure on the Mexican currency. While in theory a renegotiation of NAFTA could indeed be beneficial for all three nations, given Trump’s criticism of previous deals the market anticipates an uncompromising negotiation from the U.S. which might not yield the best results. The USD/CAD has gained 0.403 percent after Trump Trade Chief’s remarks on the future of NAFTA. The currency pair is trading at 1.3316 and is threatening the 1.34 price level if Nominee Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross words on Wednesday about NAFTA being the first thing on their agenda with all aspects on the table for renegotiation. The loonie had been appreciating in 2017 on the back on the surge of oil prices and improving fundamentals, but as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor flagged Trump uncertainty is a factor that make a Canadian interest rate cut a possibility. The central bank was proactive in 2015, but stayed in the background in 2016 letting the new Liberal government do the heavy lifting with the introduction of an stimulus program. Rising commodity prices had boosted economic recovery, while the CAD had gotten a pass from Trump’s ire as the talk was focused on Mexico. Now the loonie joins the peso on as an American border tax could impair the exports from Canada and Mexico. There is a belief that Trump will not be as harsh with Canada as he is anticipated to be with Mexico, although there is little evidence to back this claim if the goal is to protect American jobs from exiting the country. Market events to watch this week: Thursday, January 19 7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate 8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference 8:30am USD Building Permits 8:30am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 8:30am USD USD Unemployment Claims 11:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories 9:00pm CNY GDP q/y Friday, January 20 4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 8:30am CAD CPI m/m 8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m *All times EDT For a complete list of scheduled events in the forex market visit the MarketPulse Economic Calendar

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GBP/USD – Pound Pushes Above 1.23, British Retail Sales Next

The British pound is up slightly in the Thursday session. Currently, GBP/USD is trading just above the 1.23 level. On the release front, there was positive news out of the US as manufacturing and employment reports easily beat expectations. Building Permits were within expectations. There are no British events on the schedule. Friday is Inauguration Day in the US, and the markets will be closely monitoring President-elect Trump’s inaugural address to the nation. The UK will release Retail Sales, with the markets braced for a decline of 0.1%. The pound has shown signs of recovery and is poised to have a winning week for the first time in 2017. The currency jumped 2.9% on Tuesday, after Prime Minister’s May landmark speech on Brexit. In her remarks, May confirmed that Britain would no longer enjoy access to Europe’s common market, but would assume full control over its borders and immigration policy. She said that Britain was not looking for a “half-in, half out” relationship with the EU, and Britain would seek free-trade deals with Europe and countries around the world. May intends to begin Brexit negotiations with Europe in March and has set a two-year time frame for an agreement to be reached. Many European leaders were decidedly cool towards the speech, but Germany’s foreign minister acknowledged that May had finally clarified Britain’s stance on Brexit. The pound soared after the speech, mainly on May’s reassurance that any agreement would be subject to the approval of both houses of parliament. The British currency was also buoyed by solid UK inflation data. CPI, the primary gauge of consumer inflation, climbed 1.6%, its highest level since July 2014. On Monday, BoE Governor Mark Carney said that higher inflation the country is experiencing will take a toll on wages and consumer spending. Carney didn’t shed any light on future monetary policy, saying that interest rates could move in either direction in the months ahead. Still, the BoE will want to keep a lid on inflation and could raise rates in order to do so. The bank has projected an inflation rate of 2.7% in 2017, but some experts are forecasting inflation levels closer to 4 percent. As Donald Trump is about to be sworn in as president, there is a feeling of unease in the air, despite a robust US economy. Trump’s upset election victory in November was warmly received by the markets, as the US stock market and the US dollar have climbed higher. However, confidence and hope are starting to give way to confusion and uncertainty, as Trump has failed to outline any specifics on his economic policies, while continuing to tangle with the media and fire off controversial Twitter messages. Trump’s comments earlier this week about the US dollar helped send the currency lower. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Monday, Trump complained that the currency was “too strong”. These sentiments were echoed on Tuesday by Trump advisor Anthony Scaramucci. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Scaramucci warned that “we must be careful of a rising dollar.” Trump broke with the unwritten rule that US presidents refraining from commenting on the US dollar, and his comments could be a taste of more to come, as Trump is unlikely to veer from his habit of making controversial comments that could affect market movement. May Warns of Momentous Change For Britain GBP/USD Fundamentals Thursday (January 19) 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.22M. Actual 1.21M 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 16.3. Actual 23.6 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 252K. Actual 234K 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.19M. Actual 1.23M 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -235B. Actual -243B 11:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.1M. Actual 2.3M 20:00 US Fed Chair Yellen Speech Upcoming Key Events Friday (January 20) 4:30 British Retail Sales. Estimate -0.1% Tentative – President Trump Speech *All release times are EST * Key events are in bold GBP/USD for Thursday, January 19, 2017 GBP/USD January 19 at 11:20 EST Open: 1.2259 High: 1.2341 Low: 1.2250 Close: 1.2308 GBP/USD Technical S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 1.1943 1.2111 1.2272 1.2351 1.2471 1.2579 GBP/USD has posted slight gains in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has ticked lower in North American trade 1.2272 has switched to a support role following gains by GBP/USD in the Thursday session 1.2351 is the next resistance line Further levels in both directions: Below: 1.2272, 1.2111, 1.1943 and 1.1844 Above: 1.2351, 1.2471 and 1.2579 Current range: 1.2272 to 1.2351 OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio GBP/USD ratio has reversed directions and is showing gains toward long positions. Currently, long positions have a majority (63%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD continuing to move upwards. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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China Has Growth at 6.7% for Last 3 Quarters

China’s pace of economic growth is on a remarkably steady run. For the past three quarters, the world’s second largest economy has grown at exactly the same rate — 6.7%. Economists polled by CNNMoney expect China to make it four in a row when it reports fourth quarter data on Friday. The stability of the numbers has been “uncanny,” analysts at Capital Economics wrote in a research note this month. Doubts about the accuracy of Chinese economic statistics have been around for years and were compounded this week when the governor of a major industrial province admitted officials there had been falsely inflating data for years. China’s growth for the whole year is, naturally, forecast to hit 6.7% as well. The figure happens to fall right in the middle of the 6.5% to 7% range China set for itself at the start of 2016. It’ll be the slowest pace at which China’s economy has grown in more than 25 years, slightly below the 6.9% it clocked in 2015. But it’s a lot stronger than some doom-mongers had predicted at the start of last year, when fears of a sudden collapse in Chinese growth sent global markets into a tailspin. via CNN

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Mixed Day for Asian Shares

Shares were meandering in sluggish trading in Asia on Thursday as investors awaited the inauguration of Donald Trump as president. Japan’s benchmark rose after the dollar slipped against the yen. KEEPING SCORE: Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.7 percent to 19,027.09 and Australia’s S&P ASX 200 added 0.2 percent to 5,692.70. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 0.5 percent to 22,986.08 and South Korea’s Kospi was flat at 2,070.33. The Shanghai Composite index edged 0.1 percent lower to 3,110.49. Shares in Southeast Asia were mixed. THE QUOTE: “While the inauguration is dominating headlines, simmering on the back burner is the overriding theme of U.S. protectionism, expressly directed at China. With so many prominent trade hawks joining the Trump administration, it all points to a massive shift in U.S. trade policy. That does not paint a rosy picture for regional … exporters, nor countries like Australia, which play such a vital role in the global supply chain,” said Stephen Innes, a senior trader at OANDA. The New York Times

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Minor Day for Markets

No need to say much for today as very little happened in the market. The Russell 2000 attempted to undo yesterday's breakdown, but hadn't recovered enough by end of day to negate it.The only index to make any kind of move today was the Semiconductor Index. It recovered all of yesterday's losses as it looks to return a challenge of 944 highs. This index has been the star performer for 2016, but can it maintain this form into 2017?For tomorrow, look for the same breakout opportunities in Large Caps as were on offer yesterday. Shorts may use today's small gain back to former support - turned resistance - in the Russell 2000 as a chance to enter a position. Stops go on a move above 1,377.You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog. I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for "fallond". If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro's system. (function(document,script,id){var js,r=document.getElementsByTagName(script)[0],protocol=/^http:/.test(document.location)?'http':'https';if(!document.getElementById(id)){js=document.createElement(script);js.id=id;js.src=protocol+'://widgets.changetip.com/public/js/widgets.js';r.parentNode.insertBefore(js,r)}}(document,'script','changetip_w_0'));--- Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free. Fallond Stock Picks

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