Home / Tag Archives: forex analysis software

Tag Archives: forex analysis software

No Major Change

Trump's inauguration looks to have kept traders distracted as markets experienced a relatively quiet Friday, despite some higher volume trading.The S&P experienced higher volume accumulation but was unable to get past 2,275. Monday is another day, but keep an eye on the MACD; a gain with a new 'buy' trigger well above the bullish zero line will attract technical traders on the long side. This in turn will encourage short covering.The Nasdaq turned a MACD trigger 'sell', but given its relative position well above the bullish zero line it would count as a weak 'sell' trigger. Other Technicals remain firmly positive, and the relative performance of the index against the S&P suggests it's well positioned to go higher.Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 is still struggling. It did make up some lost ground, but not enough to recover lost support and not enough to reverse technical weakness. Shorts will again be looking to attack unless there is a push above 1,376.Longer term charts had moved back in favour of bulls (in what was a slow-mo reversal). It would take a few months of consistent downside to return this to a bearish stance; in light of this, look for a move to broadening wedge resistance - i.e. further bullish action.Dow Theorists can continue to take comfort in the relative relationship between Transports and Dow Jones as the breakout from the two-and-a-half year decline resumes its upward advance (Transports leading).For tomorrow, watch for a breakout in the S&P and a continuation (with new highs) of a breakout in the Nasdaq. A weak start could see an acceleration down in the Russell 2000.You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog. I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for "fallond". If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro's system. (function(document,script,id){var js,r=document.getElementsByTagName(script)[0],protocol=/^http:/.test(document.location)?'http':'https';if(!document.getElementById(id)){js=document.createElement(script);js.id=id;js.src=protocol+'://widgets.changetip.com/public/js/widgets.js';r.parentNode.insertBefore(js,r)}}(document,'script','changetip_w_0'));--- Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free. Fallond Stock Picks

Read More »

Trump Readies Executive Actions

Donald Trump is preparing to sign executive actions on his first day in the White House on Friday to take the opening steps to crack down on immigration, build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border and roll back outgoing President Barack Obama’s policies. Trump, a Republican elected on Nov. 8 to succeed Democrat Obama, arrived in Washington on a military plane with his family a day before he will be sworn in during a ceremony at the U.S. Capitol. Aides said Trump would not wait to wield one of the most powerful tools of his office, the presidential pen, to sign several executive actions that can be implemented without the input of Congress. Reuters We begin a new chapter for the US Dollar Fed Shouldn’t Let Economy Run Too Hot

Read More »

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it's suggesting the S&P will follow suit. Technicals are holding up well.The Nasdaq had small losses, but volume did climb to register as distribution. However, the breakout is holding, and it has room to run to support.For tomorrow, look for an acceleration lower in the Russell 2000. The S&P may attract late-player Shorts looking to see if this index follows the lead in the Russell 2000.You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog. I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for "fallond". If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro's system. (function(document,script,id){var js,r=document.getElementsByTagName(script)[0],protocol=/^http:/.test(document.location)?'http':'https';if(!document.getElementById(id)){js=document.createElement(script);js.id=id;js.src=protocol+'://widgets.changetip.com/public/js/widgets.js';r.parentNode.insertBefore(js,r)}}(document,'script','changetip_w_0'));--- Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free. Fallond Stock Picks

Read More »

XAU/USD – Gold Unchanged as US Inflation Data Steady

Gold prices are almost unchanged on Wednesday. In the North American session, the spot price for one ounce is $1213.67. On the release front, today’s highlights were CPI and Core CPI, which both matched their estimates. On Thursday, the US will release three key indicators – Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. There were no surprises from US consumer inflation numbers in December. CPI, the primary gauge of consumer inflation, edged up to 0.3%, while Core CPI remained unchanged at 0.2%. Both indicators matched the forecasts. Inflation levels are close to the Federal Reserve’s target of two percent, which means that policymakers will likely stick to their plan of gradual, modest rate hikes in 2017. However, the Fed is not expected to raise rates at its next meeting on February 1, so soon after raising rates in December for the first time in 12 months. Ahead of Inauguration Day on Friday, there is a feeling of unease on the part of the markets. Donald Trump’s upset election victory in November was warmly received by the markets, as the stock market and the US dollar have climbed higher. However, confidence and hope are starting to give way to confusion and uncertainty, as Trump has failed to outline any specifics on his economic policies, while continuing to tangle with the media and fire off controversial Twitter messages. Trump’s comments earlier this week about the US dollar helped send the currency lower. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Monday, Trump complained that the currency was “too strong”. These sentiments were echoed on Tuesday by Trump advisor Anthony Scaramucci. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Scaramucci warned that “we must be careful of a rising dollar.” Trump broke with the unwritten rule that US presidents refraining from commenting on the US dollar, and his comments could be a taste of more to come, as Trump is unlikely to veer from his habit of making controversial comments that could affect market movement. Trump Intervenes With Dollar Rhetoric XAU/USD Fundamentals Wednesday (January 18) 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.3% 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2% 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 75.6%. Actual 75.5% 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.8%. Actual 0.8% 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 69 points. Actual 67 points 11:00 US FOMC Member Neel Kasharki Speech 14:00 US Beige Book 15:00 US Federal Reserve Chair Yellen Speech 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 21.3B Upcoming Key Events Thursday (January 19) 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.22M 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 16.3 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 252K XAU/USD for Wednesday, January 18, 2017 XAU/USD January 18 at 13:00 EST Open: 1214.96 High: 1217.59 Low: 1209.94 Close: 1213.67 XAU/USD Technical S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 1146 1174 1199 1232 1260 1285 XAU/USD has showed minimal movement in the Wednesday session 1199 is providing support 1232 is the next resistance line Current range: 1199 to 1232 Further levels in both directions: Below: 1199, 1174, 1146 and 1130 Above: 1232, 1260 and 1285 OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio XAU/USD ratio remains unchanged this week. Currently, long positions command a strong majority (71%). This is indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD breaking out and climbing to higher levels.

Read More »

City Bankers Warn Government of Staffing Changes in Hard Brexit

Two of the largest investment banks in the City of London have said that some staff will definitely have to move abroad when the UK leaves the EU. HSBC’s chief executive, Stuart Gulliver, told Bloomberg he was preparing to move 1,000 staff from London to Paris. And Axel Weber, boss of Swiss bank UBS, told the BBC “about 1,000” of its 5,000 London jobs could be hit by Brexit. The comments underline that many thousands of banking jobs may move. UK citizens voted in a referendum last June that the country should leave the European Union. Since then, there has been widespread speculation that many financial jobs based in London might migrate to cities in the rest of Europe, such as Dublin, Paris or Frankfurt, so that the banks concerned could continue to offer their services to EU clients. via BBC

Read More »

Russell 2000 Breaks Lower

In the end, it was Theresa May and not Trump which saw the Russell 2000 cut through support and confirm the earlier 'bull trap'. This change coincided with a 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI. Only stochastics are hanging on to its 'buy' signal.The S&P experienced heavier volume distribution, but there wasn't a big percentage loss, nor was there a break from the consolidation rangeIt was a similar story for the Nasdaq. It took a greater relative loss than the S&P, but it didn't challenge support from the breakout. However, look for such a test tomorrow. All supporting technicals remain in the green.With the bank holiday weekend over, traders can again look to push the Trump/May agenda. Shorts can remain tied to the Russell 2000 - shorting rallies as they emerge. Longs should to Large Cap indices and the short covering which is likely to follow once trading range resistance is breached.You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog. I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for "fallond". If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro's system. (function(document,script,id){var js,r=document.getElementsByTagName(script)[0],protocol=/^http:/.test(document.location)?'http':'https';if(!document.getElementById(id)){js=document.createElement(script);js.id=id;js.src=protocol+'://widgets.changetip.com/public/js/widgets.js';r.parentNode.insertBefore(js,r)}}(document,'script','changetip_w_0'));--- Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free. Fallond Stock Picks

Read More »

Trump Aide Scaramucci Says They Want Better Deals not Trade Wars

President-elect Donald Trump could be one of the last great hopes for globalism, according to a member of his transition team. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, American financier Anthony Scaramucci — soon to be an assistant to Trump in the office for public liaison — said China and the United States have a “common cause.” “I believe that the U.S. and the new administration does not want to have a trade war,” he said at the event where he was officially billed as an executive member of the president-elect’s transition team. “(We) want to have free and fair trade,” he said. He spoke of a “crippled” America that had seen the negative effects of globalization since World War II. His words came directly after a speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who said economic globalization had powered worldwide growth and should not be blamed for the world’s problems. “All we’re asking for now is to create more symmetry in these trade agreements,” Scaramucci said. Referring to globalism, he sais: “It’s hollowed out American manufacturing, it’s hurt the American middle class and it’s crippled the American working class. … We have to come up with policies to change that.” via CNBC

Read More »

Brexit Breaking Bad

The Pound  Most of this morning’s action is centred on the pound after a weekend report where media suggested that UK PM Theresa May will signal the intention of a “Hard Brexit” on Tuesday. If the press insights are correct, she is willing to quit the EU’s single market and be prepared to “withdraw from tariff-free trade in exchange for kerbing immigration.” The process is likely to be a messy affair as the High Court ruling on Article 50 has yet to be announced, and with Northern Ireland’s political upheaval, the process could be dragged out for months.  Negotiations of this size and importance are bound to involve an element of bluff to ensure that the UK would get the best possible deals. Moreover, without actual confirmation of these “hard” measures, we could be viewing little more that sell the rumour, and we may end up buying the fact.  We saw the pound breach the 1.2000 mark in extremely low liquidity at the Auckland open, exacerbated by the MLK US holiday as regional desks are thinly manned on this US holiday. Regardless, we should expect GBP pull back capped until further clarity emerges. Certainly, this timely report will send shockwaves through Davos where political disorder will be the topic of the day.    Australian Dollar  Commodity currencies have held up extremely well. The AUD is the current darling in the G-10 space and attracting much attention. The Aussie continues to look attractive from a yield perspective and with iron ore prices surging it is easy to see why the Aussie is offering so much investor appeal in this environment.  We should expect a tug of war between narrowing of AUDUSD  yield differential versus surging commodity prices. Australian Dollar longs versus the USD  raises the potential for a lot of back and forth and a higher degree of uncertainty. However, the best way to express a strong Aussie Commodity bias is through crosses on the leading currencies such as EUR, GBP, and JPY which will continue to assert itself in early 2017. The Australian Dollar remains well supported in early trade on the back of GBPAUD inflows   Japanese Yen  USDJPY continues to be the favoured G-10 pair to express dollar bias. While I expect external drivers will remain dominant,  price action leading into weeks’ end indicates that we are in consolidation mode with traders doing little more than trading the edges of daily technical support and resistance. Traders remain nervous about USDJPY sensitivity to risk and bad US economic data, not to mention the lack of the upside momentum on strong US economic data. USDJPY has been trading a bit “heavy” this morning on the back of “Hard Brexit” chatter. It is possible risk sentiment will sour leading up to PM May’s speech. Given that top side momentum on the Greenback has been lacking, traders may test the market resolve of nimbly buying USD on dips ahead of the Trump Inauguration. If this occurs look for the battle zone to centre around the key 113.75-114 region.   Chinese Yuan  Lots of moving parts, investors were thrown a curveball by the funding squeeze, escalation of capital controls and mixed economic data.  Last week trade data tempered market outlook on China. I think global uncertainty will continue to weigh on China trade and the potential for a trade war between USD and China is a possibility, which points to further risk for China on the trade front. Despite all the added capital control measures, Mainlanders will continue to look for creative ways to move money abroad, especially now that the domestic markets are more influenced by global financial markets, making it increasing difficult to maintain the iron fist of control. China still wants an orderly depreciation of the Yuan to offset mounting trade uncertainty, and while I think the Yuan depreciation will likely continue post-Lunar New Year, fears of more funding squeeze continue to plague the market, and there’s simply less appetite for the short Yuan trade at this juncture. If investors are looking for long USD exposure against China’s backdrop, given these funding uncertainties, they may be better served to express this view via USDSGD and USDTWD. 

Read More »

Despite Saudi signals, OPEC unlikely to deliver all promised oil cuts

OPEC is unlikely to deliver fully on its target to cut production despite Saudi Arabia saying it had trimmed more than it had committed to, OPEC delegates say, but compliance of 80 percent would be good and as low as 50 percent acceptable. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is planning to cut its output by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.50 million bpd from Jan. 1. Russia and other non-members are planning to cut about half as much. OPEC and the independent producers are cutting production to remove a global glut and prop up prices, which at $56 a barrel are half their level of mid-2014, hurting the revenue of exporting nations. “Compliance won’t be 100 percent, it never is,” said an OPEC source, who added that an overall rate of 50 to 60 percent would be good enough, based on past compliance levels. Top exporter Saudi Arabia and Kuwait said on Thursday they had cut production by more than they committed to. Kuwait, the head of a committee to monitor compliance which meets on Jan. 22, said this was to “lead by example”. But OPEC as a whole has a patchy record of complying with its agreements, and previous non-OPEC pledges to curb output have proved largely token. Compliance is voluntary as OPEC has no mechanism to enforce its agreements. Based on statements by producing nations so far, there has been more than 60 percent compliance, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam Al-Marzouq said on Thursday. Last time OPEC cut its output, in 2009, following agreements the year before, it initially made 60 percent of the reduction and compliance peaked at higher rates, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency and other analysts, some of whom see that as a reasonable target this time. “We should see 60-70 percent compliance once again,” Daniel Gerber of Petro-Logistics, a consultant which assesses OPEC supply by tanker tracking, told Reuters in December. The cuts in 2009 were more than OPEC achieved in previous price collapses, such as during the late 1990s when countries initially did not follow through on pledges. OPEC’s historical average compliance rate is 60 percent, according to the IEA. COMPLIANCE CONCERNS Compliance with the 2009 OPEC cuts peaked at about 80 percent, according to the IEA. This was enough to help support a rise in oil prices, which began 2009 at $46 and stood at $69 by the end of June that year. Three months into that last OPEC cut, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies showed the highest level of adherence. Saudi Arabia made a larger cut than it had to then, based on the IEA numbers, so history looks set to repeat itself in 2017 if Saudi Arabia’s comments on Thursday are borne out. Next was Algeria, which implemented almost all of its commitment. Venezuelan compliance was 69 percent, more than that of Angola and Iran which both delivered less than half of their pledged reduction. This time, while compliance in the Gulf OPEC members is expected by analysts to be high, industry and OPEC sources do not expect a similar level across the board. “There is a concern about Venezuela and Iraq not being committed to the cuts,” said an industry source involved in the global cut talks, who added Russia appeared to be complying with the deal. Iraq, which initially resisted joining the cut, said this week it was reducing production. Cash-strapped Venezuela, which pushed hard to bring the global deal together, has also said it intends to. Russia reduced production by 100,000 barrels a day in the first few days of January, industry sources told Reuters. That reduction, or at least part of it, is down to unusually cold temperatures in Siberia that have forced work at oil rigs to grind to a shivering halt. Potential production growth in countries exempted from making a cut, Libya and Nigeria, could undermine reductions elsewhere. They both boosted production in December, even though OPEC supply overall fell. [OPEC/O] “If things go well in those countries, it could be quite hard for OPEC to maintain a 32.50 million bpd production target,” Gerber of Petro-Logistics said. Reuters

Read More »
error: Content is protected !!