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Tag Archives: speculation

Estimating Future Stock Returns, June 2017 Update

I’d say this is getting boring, but it’s pretty fascinating watching the rally run.  Now, this is the seventh time I have done this quarterly analysis.  The first one was for December 2015.  Over that time period, the expected annualized 10-year return went like this, quarter by quarter: 6.10%, 6.74%, 6.30%, 6.01%, 5.02%, 4.79%, and 4.30%.  At the end of June 2017, the figure would have been 4.58%, but the rally since the end of the quarter...

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Distrust Forecasts, Part 2

Photo Credit: D.C.Atty || Scrawled in 2008, AFTER the crash started=============================Comments are always appreciated from readers, if they are polite.  Here’s a recent one from the piece Distrust Forecasts.You made one statement that I don’t really understand. “Most forecasters only think about income statements. Most of the limits stem from balance sheets proving insufficient, or cash flows inverting, and staying that way...

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